浅谈地勘单位发展战略问题——以地质勘查主导产业为基础的多元化经营战略

地勘单位发展战略中存在的主要问题是:主导产业不明晰,低相关和非相关多元化经营程度过高,地勘主业发展相对滞后,单靠地勘主业难以维持发展。地勘单位多元化经营战略模式应是在地质勘查主导产业的基础上实现多元化经营,而其实现途径是对现有多元化业务实施重组,并选择高相关产业作为多元化经营的成长方向。     

The Value of Biodiversity in Pharmaceutical Research with Differentiated Products

Biologists and conservation advocates have expressed grave concern over perceived threats to biological diversity. ``Biodiversity prospecting' – the search among naturally occurring organisms for new products of agricultural, industrial, and, particularly, pharmaceutical value – has been advanced as both a mechanism and a motive for conserving biological diversity. Economists and others have attempted to estimate the value of biodiversity for use in new pharmaceutical project research. In this paper we apply a new approach to estimating values: we employ two models of competition among differentiated products. Each model confirms previous findings that the value to private researchers of the ``marginal species' is likely to be small. The models can have very different implications with respect to social values, however. These findings underscore the need for a better understanding of the true meaning of diversity.Resources for the Future     

浅谈地勘单位股份合作制改革中的问题和思路

文章介绍了西南有色地质勘查局三一○队基础工程公司股份合作制改革的情况,分析了基础工程公司股份合作制实践中存在的种种缺陷,提出了完善、深化改革的思路.     

属地化后地勘费使用的初步设想

文章对属地化之后地勘费职能的改变作了分析,对地勘单位当前存在的困难进行了论证,进而提出如何管好用好地勘费.     

对地勘队伍管理属地化、经营企业化的思考

本文从理论和实践上阐述了地勘体制改革的迫切性和必要性.提出了实现地勘队伍管理属地化、经营企业化的现实途径.     

地勘单位要加强人力资源的开发与管理

文章对人力资源开发和管理的必要性进行了论述,并从6个方面提出了对策和措施.     

地勘单位人力资源管理现状及对策

地勘单位聚集着大量的地质勘查专业技术人才,是地质勘查优质人力资源的聚集地。有效的人力资源管理,不仅对地勘单位的事业发展,而且对推动中国地矿经济的发展都具有十分重要的意义。目前地勘单位人力资源管理现状是:人事管理模式陈旧;人力资源培训力度不够,人员知识结构落后;绩效考评模糊,考核过程形式化;薪酬分配平均化,缺乏活力。地勘单位应建立与市场经济相适应的科学化人才机制。因此,地勘单位的人事管理制度改革应采取如下对策:①树立整体人力资源观,构建开放型人力资源管理新模式;②加大对职工的培训力度,创建学习型机关;③实行量化考核;④深化薪酬制度改革,打破平均主义。     

基于BP网络对我国通货膨胀率的预测及其分析

本文首先由我国的CPI计算出通货膨胀率,综合分析了我国通货膨胀率和GDP增长率数据。其次,用带有动量项和自适应学习率的BP神经网络预测出2008～2009年我国CPI,从而推算出2008～2009年我国通货膨胀率分别是4.99%和4.91%左右。并提出了一些相应的政策建议。     

Forecasting the business cycle using survey data

Regular business survey data are published as percentages of firms predicting higher, equal or lower values of some reference variable. Time series of such percentages do not fit production data too well. Univariate models often produce forecasts which are just as accurarate. Still, surveys contain anticipative judgement which, when combined with univariate modeling and proper filtering, may produce a good indicator for business cycle turning points. The way survey data are transformed so as to fit statistics on production seems not to be of much importance. A case study of the Finnish forest industry is offered as an example.     

Cross Validation Calibration Based Shrinkage – Revisited for the Construction of Prognostic Indices

The use of shrinkage methods for the construction of prognostic indices has been paid increasing attention in the literature on medical statistics in the last years. One approach for the construction of a shrinkage factor is cross validation calibration as suggested by van H ouwelingen and le C essie (1990). We investigate this approach in more detail. First we try to clarify why shrinkage factors constructed by cross validation calibration tend to be smaller than 1. Second we explain why use of this shrinkage factor can result in an improvement of the average prediction error. Third we investigate the possible gain for constellations relevant in medical research by means of a simulation study, focusing on the dilemma, that the improvement on average has to be paid by distinct deteriorations for some patients. Finally we conclude that it is necessary to rethink the choice of loss functions in constructing prognostic indices before recommendations about the use of shrinkage methods can be made.